Forecast 08/24

The plume predicted by the 2-day ocean forecast continues to shift southwest. Inside the estuary, the neap-tide condition seems to more clearly expose the shortcoming of the forecasts: in particular, the under-estimation of ocean water intrusion, which can be seen in both salinity and temperature (as predicted by the 2-day ocean forecast).
The 7-day estuary forecast, on the other hand, slightly over-estimates the near bottom salinity. One interesting temperature signal is found at mottb ; it can be seen that the data temperature is near maximum around mid-night, quite different from the forecast. This may be due to the local retention effects near the Tongue Point hole; note that even the 7-day estuary forecast under-estimates the salinity there.