Forecast 08/19

The downwelling wind yesterday and today has pushed the plume passed GH, approximately 2 days earlier than the 7-day ocean forecast; the outer edge of the plume reached GH line early Sunday according to the 2-day ocean forecast:

surface salinity plume from 2-day ocean forecast
surface salinity plume from 7-day ocean forecast

The outer edge of the
plume according the 2-day ocean forecast (which is more trustworthy) will be at the 2nd node of GH line early Monday.

The downwelling is also confirmed by the codar image along the coast and around CR . The associated storm also seems to have caused the estuary to be well mixed:

red26 salinity at 3.3m from 2-day ocean forecast
red26 salinity at 9m from 2-day ocean forecast.

Upwelling will start Monday, according to the 7-day ocean forecast, and by Tuesday the plume will significantly widen to dettach from the coast, reaching about 124 degrees 42'W at CR line at 11pm (PDT) Tuesday. This remains to be verified by the 2-day ocean forecast tomorrow.