Forecasts
As part of CMOP's long-term vision for the SATURN/CORIE modeling system, multiple self-redundant Columbia River circulation forecasts are run daily, including one forecast with data assimilation. These forecasts directly support CMOP and other regional cruises, and will play a key role in adaptive sampling with moving platforms. The most recent addition to our forecast system is a parallel version of SELFE, the unstructured-grid circulation model that anchors the SATURN/CORIE modeling system. This, coupled with a new 80-processor cluster (installation in progress), will lead to drastically improved computational performance in the generation of forecasts, simulation databases and scenario simulations.
In addition to the Columbia River forecasts (see example), we have created, maintain and are progressively improving the quality of circulation forecasts (and, eventually, simulation databases) for a range of Pacific Northwest estuaries. The contrast of these and other Pacific Northwest estuaries with the Columbia River, will allow a robust analysis of the impacts of large-scale processes such as tectonic deformations and climate. Current forecasts are for:
- Fraser River
- Grays Harbor
- Willapa Bay
- Tillamook, Nehalem, & Netarts Bays
- Yaquina Bay & Alsea Bays
- Humboldt Bay
- Siletz and Depoe Bays
- Coos Bay
All the Columbia River simulation databases, scenarios and forecasts are integral both to the core scientific mission of CMOP and to active collaborations with NOAA’s Northwest Fisheries Science Center (with NOAA and Bonneville Power Administration support) regarding salmon survival and recovery, and to emerging collaborations with CRITFC (planning stage) regarding estuary and near-shore ecosystem changes under large scale external forcing and human activities. Daily forecasts of other Pacific Northwest estuaries represent shared development with the Northwest Association of Networked Ocean Observing Systems (NANOOS.)
We are currently developing a web-based Rapid Deployment Forecast System (RDFS) to serve CMOP forecast data to the public. The easily navigable user-interface will quickly render a wide selection of model data, and provide context with a variety of map overlays. To better resolve estuarine processes, users will also be able to animate the model data over specified time ranges.
RDFS Screenshot